Energy forecast of Ecuador's Tertiary Sector to 2040 Using the LEAP Model

Authors

  • Yoiler Tigua Villaprado Faculty of Industrial Engineering, University of Guayaquil, Guayaquil 090514, Ecuador.
  • Joao Cadena-Barrera Faculty of Industrial Engineering, University of Guayaquil, Guayaquil 090514, Ecuador.
  • Pedro Castro-Verdezoto Faculty of Industrial Engineering, University of Guayaquil, Guayaquil 090514, Ecuador.
  • Daniel Ortega-Pacheco BioCarbon, Guayaquil, Ecuador.

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.53591/easi.v4i2.2596

Keywords:

Energy consumption, Energy forecasting, LEAP model, Tertiary sector

Abstract

This study forecasts energy consumption in Ecuador’s tertiary sector through 2040 using a prospective energy model developed with LEAP software. It relies on official data and variables such as employment figures and household consumption. Three scenarios are analyzed: Business as Usual (BAU), High (HIGH), and Low (LOW) consumption. Results show an 87% increase in energy use between 2020 and 2040, rising from 5 million to 10 million barrels of oil equivalent (BOE). Under the BAU scenario, consumption is projected at 10 million BOE; 6 million in the LOW scenario; and 13 million in the HIGH scenario. Out of 11 activities analyzed, 84% of energy use is concentrated in three key areas: Information and Communication, Commerce, and Accommodation and Food Services. The sector also displays a strong reliance on electricity, which represents 76% of its total energy consumption. Transportation services were excluded from the analysis, as they are considered a separate sector due to their high energy demand. The findings highlight the urgency of implementing sustainable strategies to manage energy use, especially in high-consumption activities. This information provides a valuable foundation for decision-makers and stakeholders in designing energy policies focused on efficiency and reducing environmental impacts in Ecuador’s tertiary sector.

Author Biographies

  • Yoiler Tigua Villaprado, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, University of Guayaquil, Guayaquil 090514, Ecuador.

    Yoiler Steeven Tigua Villaprado is an Industrial Engineer graduated from the University of Guayaquil with practical experience in quality inspection and quality assurance in the shrimp industry and other sectors. He currently serves as a Quality Inspector at Negocios Industriales Real S.A. (Nirsa), where he verifies the quality of shrimp, packaging materials, labels. With previous experience at Asiambusiness del Ecuador S.A. and internships at PDV Ecuador S.A. and Hospital León Becerra, he has developed skills in quality assurance, management system audits, safety inspections, and collaboration with certification teams.

  • Joao Cadena-Barrera, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, University of Guayaquil, Guayaquil 090514, Ecuador.

    He began his professional career as a Service Technician, working for seven years in the maintenance and diagnostics of heavy equipment. With over ten years of experience in the industry, he currently leads technical teams and manages operations focused on efficiency, quality, and customer service. His experience combines strong technical knowledge with management and leadership skills, oriented toward continuous improvement and the development of effective solutions for clients in the industrial and construction sectors.

  • Pedro Castro-Verdezoto, Faculty of Industrial Engineering, University of Guayaquil, Guayaquil 090514, Ecuador.

    Pedro Luis Castro Verdezoto is an accomplished expert in energy planning and hybrid modeling, with extensive experience in analyzing socio-economic and environmental implications of carbon policies and energy transition strategies across Latin America. He serves as Director of Sustainability Research Projects and Associate Researcher of the Ecuadorian National Research System (RNI). His career spans international consultancy, scientific leadership, and academic work focused on industrial decarbonization, bioeconomy transitions, and policy design through advanced tools such as LEAP and input–output models.

  • Daniel Ortega-Pacheco, BioCarbon, Guayaquil, Ecuador.

    Daniel is the Co-Chair of the Expert Panel of the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM). He currently leads the Executive Secretariat of the Partnership for Agricultural Carbon, hosted by the Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA) and supported by the Voluntary Carbon Market Integrity Initiative (VCMI). He has more than 20 years of experience in climate diplomacy, including advancing multilateral environmental agreements and carbon market regulation. During COP21 in Paris, he served as Ecuador’s Minister of Environment, and the French Presidency appointed him to co-chair the ministerial negotiations on REDD+. He is a lecturer at Yale University and holds a Ph.D. in Public Policy and Management from The Ohio State University.

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Published

2025-11-04

Issue

Vol. 4 No. 2 (2025): [Special issue] CIIA 2025 - International Conference of Applied Industrial Engineering: Intelligent Models and Data Engineering

Section

Special Issue

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Copyright (c) 2025 Yoiler Tigua Villaprado, Joao Cadena-Barrera, Pedro Castro-Verdezoto, Daniel Ortega-Pacheco

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How to Cite

Energy forecast of Ecuador’s Tertiary Sector to 2040 Using the LEAP Model. (2025). EASI: Engineering and Applied Sciences in Industry, 4(2), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.53591/easi.v4i2.2596