Los programas sociales de la 4T. Evaluación de impacto por medio de modelos de Microsimulación, 2020.
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53591/qhq3r904Keywords:
microsimulation, poverty, progressivity, inequalityAbstract
President López Obrador's administration decided to modify the criteria for allocating beneficiaries to social programs with direct cash transfers, arguing that corruption prevented social welfare benefits from reaching the most disadvantaged. This article proposes an alternative methodology for ex-post impact evaluation of social programs with direct cash transfers based on microsimulation models and the use of the Household Income and Expenditure Surveys in Mexico. Static microsimulation models are constructed to evaluate scenarios with and without direct transfers. Based on these, the impact of social policy on poverty and income inequality is assessed. Furthermore, the study proposes an analysis of the design of direct transfers and an evaluation of their progressivity conditions for income redistribution. Observed and simulated poverty rates and inequality and progressivity indices are estimated to assess the impact of the policy with and without the benefit. This allows for the construction of an alternative ex-post impact assessment methodology, demonstrating that the 4T policy does not significantly improve poverty and inequality in Mexico.
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