Flood risks in Guayaquil

Abstract

I propose the hypothetical case of a massive flood of Guayaquil city caused by climate change, based on evidence left by the ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) phenomenon, long-sustained rains, upraising of sea evel, infrastructure limitations and siltation of the Guayas River, filling of natural canals and shores by informal urbanization and the permanent deforestation of the Guayas basin. This massive flooding event is explored through modelling tools, to finally propose severa! response-scenarios in order to achieve a flood-contingency plan for the city.