Determinants of Informal Work in Guayaquil in 2023: A probabilistic analysis between genders, ethnicities, educational levels and other socioeconomic variables
Códigos JEL: J46, C25, I24, J15
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.53591/fce.v7i9.2429Keywords:
informal work, logit model, Guayaquil, labor inequalityAbstract
This work aims to calculate the probability that a resident of the city of Guayaquil, in 2023, will face the condition of informal worker, considering different socioeconomic characteristics, such as level of education, sex, ethnicity, migrant status, occupational group, etc. To meet this objective, a Logit probabilistic model will be used, and data from the ENEMDU survey as of December 2023 will be used. The application of the model shows that, in the city of Guayaquil, in 2023, people with low levels of education, women, migrants, and people of certain ethnicities, such as indigenous and Afro-Ecuadorians, are more likely to fall into the condition of informality at work. It also shows that, when some of these characteristics are combined, the probability of suffering from labor informality increases. The most important conclusion of this study is that, in addition to the fact that there is a high degree of informality in work in the city of Guayaquil in 2023, inhabitants who have historically disadvantaged characteristics continue to have those disadvantages when it comes to exercising the role of workers.
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