Based on the above, it can be stated that the objective of the
research is to optimize fuel oil dispatch through the
development of a multivariate regression model that
incorporates local storage indicators.
To achieve the stated objective, it is proposed to identify
and select storage indicators and fuel oil dispatch to develop
a multivariate regression model that predicts and optimizes
the dispatch of this fuel based on these indicators.
Subsequently, the model will be validated using real fuel oil
dispatch and storage data, determining the accuracy it
achieves to effectively predict optimized dispatch.
1.1.- Factors affecting fuel dispatch
Fuel dispatch is a complex logistical process that depends
on multiple factors such as demand, production and storage
capacity, inventory levels, geographical location of
facilities, means and costs of transportation. The
identification and rigorous analysis of these elements is
essential to develop analytical models that allow
optimization of dispatch [4].
One of the most important factors is fuel demand, which
determines the quantities and frequency of dispatch to
consumption points. Another relevant factor is production
and storage capacity, which limits fuel availability. Tank
inventory levels also affect when and how much should be
produced and dispatched [5].
The geographical location between production, storage, and
consumption points impacts the distance and mode of
transport required. Fuel transportation can be by ship, train,
or truck, with each mode differing in capacity, speed, and
cost [6].
Other factors such as weather, scheduled maintenance, and
applicable regulations also affect the dispatch process, so
they must be considered in logistics planning and
optimization [7].
1.2.- Storage tank level indicators
Fuels such as fuel oil are stored in large tanks before being
dispatched. Real-time monitoring of inventory levels is
fundamental to coordinate the logistics related to product
movement. Tanks have instruments that measure
parameters such as stored volume and filling/emptying rates
[8].
These level indicators provide valuable information for
forecasting demand, anticipating replenishment needs, and
implementing required dispatches. Their integration with
analytical techniques such as multivariate regression
optimizes the entire physical distribution process [9].
Some key points about the indicators are level
measurement, optimal operating range, filling/emptying
rates, replenishment point, inventory turnover, and their
correlation with dispatch. Additionally, they allow for
demand forecasting and optimization of mathematical
models for logistics recommendations [10].
Real-time monitoring of levels is essential for optimal
supply chain coordination and efficient dispatch,
minimizing costs and times [11].
1.3.- Production Forecast
Due to continuous technological and commercial changes,
inventory management models must be constantly updated.
Sales forecasting has become a vital source of data to
predict product demand in the most realistic way possible
[12].
Small businesses need to know the quantity of purchases
demanded by the market for each product, in order to
maintain sufficient inventory and efficiently satisfy
consumer demand. Therefore, production forecasting
becomes relevant in the planning of these companies [13].
Production forecasting is a prediction of the future under
certain uncertainty, which can be done using quantitative
and qualitative methods. Among the most commonly used
methods are time series, regressions, and qualitative
methods [14].
Factors to consider when selecting the appropriate
forecasting model include demand behavior, the existence
of trends, and the particular situation of each distribution
point. Proper choice of method is crucial for small
businesses to efficiently plan their production [15].
1.4.- Multivariate Regression
Multivariate regression involves relating a dependent
variable with multiple independent variables through linear
mathematical models. It is essential to evaluate assumptions
such as heteroscedasticity and multicollinearity through
statistical tests to obtain valid results [16].
The great advantage is that by incorporating more
independent variables, more relevant information is
included to build the model, approximating reality more
closely with less error and greater precision [17].
The mathematical model of multiple linear regression
expresses the dependent variable as a linear function of the
independent variables, plus an error term. The parameters
are unknown and are estimated using least squares.
The least squares regression method obtains simultaneous
estimates of the coefficients, minimizing the sum of squares
of the residuals.
To determine the most influential variables, techniques such
as sequential selection, stepwise, or analysis of variance are
used, allowing the construction of a more parsimonious
model useful for forecasting [18].
1.5.- Coefficient of Determination R2